Methodology
How We Calculate True Value
The math behind the brand promise. Methodology version 1, last updated 2026-04-30.
True Value is what you actually keep from a casino or sportsbook bonus after the wagering requirement eats into it. A $100 bonus advertised on a sportsbook isn’t worth $100 if you have to wager $3,000 before you can withdraw — at the casino’s built-in margin, that wagering loses money on average. This page documents the math we use to compute True Value, the assumptions behind each number, and what we don’t model.
Try it on any bonus
The bonus terms
Add rakeback or free spins (optional)
Real value
Where the value comes from
Computed at a 3% blended house margin against the wagering requirement. A $500 headline bonus rarely returns $500 — the requirement is what decides. Methodology last updated 2026-04-30. How this works →
Why this exists
True Value is the promise in our homepage line about everything the books don’t tell you. Most bonus comparison sites show you a headline number. We show you what you actually keep — under explicit assumptions, with the math citable on this page.
If a bonus has True Value $0, we say so. We don’t hide the wagering-requirement impossibility behind a verdict label.
The four locked assumptions
- 3% blended margin for both casino and sportsbook clearance math. Single value across verticals supports a transparent, citable methodology. Real margins vary by game and operator; we publish a roadmap (§07) for per-operator margin overrides.
- R3 + D2 reference scenario. Wager volume = bonus × WR × wr_scope_factor when a deposit-WR component exists; falls back to $1,000 over 30 days for bonuses with no wagering requirement (rakeback, cashback, free bets).
- Split rankings.Casino bonuses are never co-ranked with sportsbook bonuses. A casino-only platform should not be penalized in a list that also weighs the sportsbook component of a hybrid operator’s offer.
- Three anchors —
deposit,wager,flat— cover every welcome-bonus shape. Anchor = how value scales, not the bonus type.
The wagering-requirement impossibility
At our assumed 3% blended margin, any wagering requirement at or above 33× makes the bonus mathematically impossible to clear at positive value. Industry norms cluster at 30–40× — which means most advertised match bonuses have True Value ≈ $0. We don’t hide this.
| WR | TV (% of bonus) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| ≤ 10× | 70%+ | Excellent |
| 10–15× | 50–70% | Good |
| 15–23× | 30–50% | Average |
| 23–33× | 0–30% | Poor |
| 33×+ | 0 | Avoid |
The 33× threshold is exact: TV = bonus × (1 − 0.03 × WR), crosses zero at WR = 33.3×.
Per-anchor value functions
Deposit anchor — match bonuses:
TV_per_100_deposit = match_pct × min(100, max_bonus / qualifying_deposit)
× (1 − WR × 0.03 × wr_scope_factor)Wager anchor — rakeback (welcome only):TV_per_100_wager = rakeback_pct × 100 × 0.03 — paid on margin, regardless of outcome.
Wager anchor — cashback (% of net loss):TV_per_100_wager = cashback_pct × 100 × 0.03 × 0.5 — conditional on the user being net-down.
Flat anchor variants:
- Free credit / no-deposit:
value × (1 − WR × 0.03) - Free bet (sportsbook):
value × stake_back_effwhere stake_back_eff = 0.65–0.75 - Risk-free first bet:
stake × P(loss) × recovery_eff - Lossback (first-period loss insurance):
max_refund × P(net_down) × recovery_eff - Free spins:
(count × face × RTP) × (1 − WR × 0.03)(RTP default 96.5%)
Note on cashback:the operator-level “% of net loss” cashback we score is different from “cashback affiliate” sites that pay you for signing up via their link. Different mechanic; out of scope here.
The reference scenario
The composite True Value on every row is computed under one canonical user behavior: “a player who deposits $100 and wagers their bonus through enough to clear it.” When a bonus has no wagering requirement to derive volume from (rakeback-only, true cashback), we fall back to $1,000 wagered over 30 days — the industry-affiliate convention for bonus-aware first-month players.
The bonus calculator at /tools/bonus-calculator lets you replace this default with your own deposit and wager volume — same math, your numbers.
Worked examples
$300 casino match, 35× WR, bonus-only: $0 (clearance loss exceeds bonus value at 3% margin).
10% rakeback, no WR, $1,000 wagered fallback: $3.00 composite.
“Bet $5 get $200 in bonus bets”: $130–$150 (range from stake-back conversion variance).
“First bet up to $1,000 risk-free”: $325–$375 (range from recovery efficiency variance).
200 free spins × $1 face, 96.5% RTP, 30× WR: ~$19.
$25 no-deposit credit, 40× WR: $0 (same impossibility math as a high-WR match — clearance loss exceeds bonus value).
100% match $100 + 30-day 5% rakeback, 25× WR: $25 + $3.75 = $28.75 composite.
Limitations and roadmap
What we explicitly DO NOT model in v1:
- Jackpot variance (progressive slots have +EV windows we don’t price)
- VIP / loyalty rebates and tier-up rakeback (out of welcome scope by definition)
- Skill-based EV (sportsbook bettors at soft books exceed 50% win rate)
- Withdrawal friction (slow payouts, high minimum withdrawals)
- Geo-specific T&Cs (some operators publish different WR by jurisdiction)
- Operator-specific blended margin (we use 3% uniformly)
Roadmap: per-operator margin in v2; withdrawal-friction sub-score; Lifetime Value scoring as a separate system; soft-line index for sportsbooks.
Run the math yourself
Every assumption on this page is exposed in the bonus calculator. Override the deposit, wager volume, RTP, or recovery efficiency and see the True Value recompute live.