A both teams to score betting strategy rests on one comparison. Back BTTS Yes when your estimate that both sides score is higher than the break-even rate the price implies. Back No when it is lower. Start with the team least likely to score, because the weaker attack sets the ceiling on BTTS Yes.
For how BTTS fits alongside the 1X2 and handicap markets, see our football betting guide.
How does a both teams to score bet settle?
BTTS is a two-way market. Yes wins if both teams score at least once. No wins if at least one team fails to score. The winner, the margin and the goalscorers don't matter.
Most books use these settlement rules:
- Time counted: 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shootouts don't count, so a cup tie that is 0-0 after 90 minutes and ends 1-1 after extra time settles as BTTS No.
- Own goals: they count for the team credited with the goal.
- VAR: a goal that is ruled out doesn't count. Bets settle on the official result.
- Abandoned matches: house rules differ. Some books void every open bet. Others let a bet stand if its result was already decided, such as BTTS Yes after both teams had scored. Read the rules before you bet.
- In-play: BTTS is widely offered live, and the price moves with every goal and with the clock.
| Market | What has to happen | Wins | Loses |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS Yes | Both teams score | 1-1, 3-2 | 2-0, 0-0 |
| BTTS No | At least one team fails to score | 0-0, 3-0 | 1-1, 2-1 |
| BTTS & Over 2.5 goals | Both score and 3+ goals in total | 2-1, 2-2 | 1-1, 3-0 |
| BTTS & home win | Both score and the home team wins | 2-1, 3-1 | 1-1, 2-0 |
| First-half BTTS | Both score before half-time | 1-1 at HT | 1-0 at HT |
| BTTS in both halves | Both teams score in each half | 1-1 HT, 2-2 FT | 1-1 HT, 2-1 FT |
Market names and settlement terms for combined BTTS bets vary by book. The terms shown on your bet slip decide the result.
Which odds are best for BTTS?
No single price is best. A BTTS price is only worth taking when you rate the outcome above its break-even rate, which is 1 divided by the decimal odds.
| Decimal | American | Break-even rate |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | -167 | 62.5% |
| 1.70 | -143 | 58.8% |
| 1.80 | -125 | 55.6% |
| 1.90 | -111 | 52.6% |
| 2.00 | +100 | 50.0% |
| 2.20 | +120 | 45.5% |
| 2.50 | +150 | 40.0% |
Break-even rate = 1 ÷ decimal odds. These are fixed reference prices, not live lines.
Every price also carries the bookmaker's margin. Take a book offering BTTS Yes at 1.85 and No at 1.95 (decimal):
- Break-even for Yes: 1 ÷ 1.85 = 54.1%
- Break-even for No: 1 ÷ 1.95 = 51.3%
- The two add up to 105.3%. The extra 5.3% is the book's margin.
- Scale both figures down so they total 100%. That gives the book's own estimate: about 51.3% Yes and 48.7% No.
Step 4 uses the proportional method, which is the simplest. Other methods spread the margin differently and produce slightly different figures.
The book's estimate is not a reason to bet. At 1.85 you still need Yes to land more than 54.1% of the time. If another book offers 1.95 on Yes, your break-even drops to 51.3%. Comparing prices is part of the strategy, not an extra step.
How to build a both teams to score betting strategy for one match
The standard goal model bettors use is a Poisson model. It treats goals as rare, random events and turns an expected number of goals into a chance of scoring. You can run it in a spreadsheet:
- Estimate expected goals for each team in this match. Start from home and away splits for goals and expected goals (xG, a rating of chance quality), both created and conceded. Adjust for the opponent and team news. A season average on its own is too blunt.
- Convert each figure into a chance of scoring at least once. For a team expected to score 1.6 goals, type `=1-EXP(-1.6)`.
- Multiply the two chances together. The result is your BTTS Yes estimate. BTTS No is 100% minus that figure.
- Compare your estimate with the break-even rate. Bet only when the gap is big enough to absorb errors in your inputs.
Here is a worked example where the home team is expected to score 1.6 goals and the away team 1.1:
- Home team scores at least once: 1 − e^(−1.6) = 79.8%
- Away team scores at least once: 1 − e^(−1.1) = 66.7%
- BTTS Yes: 0.798 × 0.667 = 53.2%, a fair price of about 1.88
The same calculation across a range of matchups:
| Home expected goals | Away 0.8 | Away 1.1 | Away 1.4 | Away 1.8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.2 | 38% | 47% | 53% | 58% |
| 1.6 | 44% | 53% | 60% | 67% |
| 2.0 | 48% | 58% | 65% | 72% |
| 2.4 | 50% | 61% | 69% | 76% |
BTTS Yes probability from our own calculation using an independent Poisson model. The figures are illustrative, and real matches deviate from the model for the reasons below.
Read the bottom row. A team expected to score 2.4 goals scores in about 91% of matches, but against a side expected to score 0.8, BTTS Yes is still about 50%. Some bettors like BTTS in lopsided games because the favourite almost always scores. That part holds, but it means the bet depends almost entirely on the underdog finding a goal.
Where the simple model goes wrong
- Lowest scorelines: Mark Dixon and Stuart Coles studied English football scores in a 1997 paper in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. They found the independent model gets 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 wrong and added a correction for those results. In our worked example, those four scorelines make up about 37% of all outcomes, so small errors there move BTTS prices.
- Game state: a team that goes ahead may sit deeper, and a trailing team takes more risks. The basic model assumes each team scores at the same rate whatever the score.
- Small samples: five or six matches of xG can swing on one penalty or red card. Weight recent form, but don't let it replace a larger sample.
- Team news: a missing first-choice striker lowers one input. A missing goalkeeper or centre-back raises the other team's input.
- Match context: a team that only needs a draw, for example in a second leg, may attack less than its averages suggest.
- League and season: BTTS rates differ between competitions and change from season to season, so use current data for the league you are betting on.
How BTTS combos and accumulators change the math
Take the same match as before, with expected goals of 1.6 and 1.1:
- BTTS Yes: 53.2%
- Over 2.5 goals: 50.6%, from 2.7 total expected goals
- BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 together: 41.4%. The only BTTS result that misses Over 2.5 is 1-1, which the model puts at 11.8%.
Other combos remove results in the same way. BTTS & home win drops every draw and every home win to nil.
Accumulators across different matches are simpler, because the legs are independent. That does not make them cheaper:
| Bet at -110 per leg (1.909 decimal) | Total decimal odds | Legs truly 50%: win chance, expected return | Legs truly 55%: win chance, expected return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Single | 1.91 | 50%, −4.5% | 55%, +5.0% |
| Four-leg accumulator | 13.28 | 6.3%, −17.0% | 9.2%, +21.5% |
Our calculation: expected return = win chance × total decimal odds − 1.
At coin-flip legs, four selections turn a 4.5% expected loss into 17%. If every leg really does have value, the accumulator multiplies that too. It still wins less than one time in ten, so long losing runs are normal. Our football combo bets strategy guide covers staking multiples.
Common BTTS betting mistakes
No BTTS method guarantees a win, and no single strategy is the most profitable for every bettor. The approach with a realistic chance of long-term profit is the one above: estimate the chance yourself, compare it with the break-even rate and bet only where there is a clear gap. These habits undo it:
- Backing the fixture, not the price. A big match between two attacking sides is usually priced short for that exact reason.
- Trusting old head-to-heads. Meetings from several seasons ago often involved different managers and squads.
- Reading goals and ignoring chances. A team that won 1-0 four times while creating little is not a reliable scorer.
- Ignoring the underdog's attack. The grid above shows it caps BTTS Yes.
- Stacking legs to make a short price look bigger. Each added leg brings another margin.
- Chasing Yes late in a match. The price lengthens as time runs out because the chance really is falling. Our live football betting strategy guide covers mid-match pricing.
- Not recording the price you took. Over a large sample, compare your prices with the closing prices to check whether your estimates beat the market.
Compare current BTTS prices across books at /odds/football.