Every CFTC-Regulated Prediction Market in 2026

CFTC-regulated prediction markets are US exchanges registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to list event contracts. By mid-2026, thirteen of them were trading:

• Kalshi
• Polymarket US
• Robinhood
• DraftKings DKeX
• FanDuel Predicts
• Coinbase
• Crypto.com
• Webull
• ForecastEx
• Rothera
• ProphetX
• Cboe Predicts
• PredictIt

Kalshi has most of the volume. The largest exchange outside that list is Polymarket's international platform, and it is not CFTC-regulated.

A prediction market lets you buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a real event. Prices run in cents between 0 and 100. You trade against other users rather than taking a price from a sportsbook, so the price works as the crowd's running estimate of the probability.

Are prediction markets regulated by the CFTC?

Prediction markets that operate legally for US customers are regulated by the CFTC. Offshore and crypto-native sites that bar US users are not.

The CFTC's own explainer says event contracts are usually structured as swaps. They have a fixed payout, usually $1, and a set expiry. Take a 70-cent "yes" contract on whether it rains tomorrow. If it rains, the contract pays $1 and you make a 30-cent profit. If it stays dry, you lose your 70 cents.

The regulator traces the history back several decades:

• 1988: The Iowa Electronic Market opens as an academic experiment.
• 1992: CFTC staff let it run as a not-for-profit research tool under a no-action letter.
• 2004: The CFTC approves HedgeStreet, later Nadex, as the first designated contract market offering binary options.
• 2010: The Dodd-Frank Act gives the CFTC more authority over event contracts.

What registration covers, and what it does not

Registration applies to the venue. A platform applies to operate as a designated contract market (DCM). Some also register a derivatives clearing organisation (DCO) so they can settle their own trades. Both are federal permissions to run the marketplace.

Registration does not pre-approve the individual contracts. Exchanges self-certify each contract, and the CFTC can review it afterwards. On 27 July 2026, the regulator told Kalshi and Polymarket to stop filing contracts in blanket batches.

That leaves three separate questions for each trade:

• Is the venue federally regulated? If so, you get segregated customer funds, reporting obligations and a named regulator.
• Will the contract survive? The CFTC's proposed rule would bar contracts on player injuries, officiating decisions and discrete in-game actions.
• Does your state allow it? Courts have split on whether state gambling law reaches these contracts. Nine states were in litigation with the CFTC as of July 2026.

Is the CFTC itself regulated?

The CFTC is the regulator. It is an independent federal agency. Its commissioners are nominated by the President and confirmed by the Senate, and Congress oversees and funds the agency.

Which CFTC-regulated prediction markets are live in 2026?

Status checked against each platform's own documentation or announcements, plus Robinhood's June 2026 fee schedule, which names Kalshi, CME Group, ForecastEx and Rothera as its executing venues. Novig received CFTC designation on 16 June 2026 and expected a nationwide rollout over the summer. We could not confirm that its exchange is trading, so it is not listed.

The table needs two caveats:

• Cboe Predicts is reachable only through Interactive Brokers. Charles Schwab access is planned for later, so "live" overstates how many people can actually use it.
• Polymarket US publishes a fee schedule effective 1 July with monthly volume-rebate tiers, which suggests real trading. Its own marketing page was still showing a waitlist when we checked.

Is Coinbase regulated by the CFTC?

The prediction markets inside Coinbase are powered by Kalshi. The contracts you trade there are listed on Kalshi's CFTC-registered exchange. Coinbase also runs its own CFTC-registered derivatives business. Webull works the same way: the app is the front end, and Kalshi is the regulated venue underneath.

Why the same trade costs different amounts on each venue

Most of these exchanges set fees by how uncertain the outcome is, rather than charging a flat rate. The usual formula is a coefficient × price × (1 − price). It peaks at 50 cents and falls towards either end, so a coin-flip contract costs the most to trade. Many sports contracts sit near that price.

• Kalshi charges takers a 0.07 coefficient and makers 0.0175, per its fee schedule. At 50 cents, a taker pays 0.07 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 1.75 cents per $1 contract, rounded up to 2 cents. S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 markets get a reduced 0.035 rate.
• Polymarket US charges takers 0.06 and pays makers a rebate. Taker volume rebates run from 10% up to 50% above $10m a month.
• Robinhood charges 10% of price × (1 − price), or 5% with Gold. Kalshi products add a 1-cent-per-contract exchange fee on each side.
• FanDuel Predicts takes 2% of your potential payout at checkout. This fee does not scale with uncertainty, so it costs proportionally more on heavy favourites.
• ForecastEx through Interactive Brokers has no IBKR commission and a 1-cent exchange fee.

Several venues publish no rate:

• DraftKings' DKeX rulebook says fees will be "reflected on the Website" but names no figure.
• Coinbase shows fees only at order confirmation.
• ProphetX advertises itself as free to play and attaches no schedule.
• Crypto.com's two help pages give different numbers.

Where a venue does not publish a rate, check the confirmation screen before you commit. For worked examples across venues, see what a prediction market trade actually costs.

Which prediction markets are biggest, and which sit outside the CFTC?

Kalshi is the largest venue by a wide margin. It cleared $31.5bn in June 2026, against $3.04bn for Polymarket US, according to The Block Data. Kalshi took roughly three-quarters of June's regulated US volume. Several entrants on the list above were still in their first full month.

The second-largest venue overall is not on the list. Polymarket's international exchange traded $10.26bn in June, about three times its US entity. It is not CFTC-regulated. Polymarket's site says the international platform "is not regulated by the CFTC and operates independently". The two exchanges share a name and little else, with different fees, markets and legal standing. Checking one Polymarket entity tells you nothing about the other, and readers often mix them up.

Limitless is further outside the CFTC perimeter. It has a Panamanian operator and fully documented fees, and its terms bar US users outright. The CFTC warns that you may have little or no protection if you trade with an unregistered entity.

These volume gaps also matter for arbitrage between sportsbooks and prediction markets. A thin order book can show a price you cannot actually fill.

Liquidity, fees, then your state: an order of checks

Thirteen venues do not mean thirteen real choices for every market. Many traders check in this order:

1. Liquidity. Find out where the market you want has a deep order book.
2. Fees. Compare each venue's fee structure with how you actually trade. Taker fees, maker rebates and payout-based fees favour different styles.
3. State. Confirm your state allows these contracts, because a state block can make the first two checks irrelevant.

Some traders start from the state question instead, especially in states where litigation is active. Either order works if all three get checked.

Registration tells you the venue answers to a federal regulator. It does not guarantee the contract will still be listed next month, or that you can legally trade it from where you are.

Compare current status and fees for each prediction market platform