Sarah Kimball
Strategy & Prediction Markets · odds.guru
Sarah Kimball publishes strategy and prediction-market content for odds.guru.
- Articles
- 7
- Active since
- Apr 2026
- Last active
- 7 Sept 2026
- Primary beat
- Baseball
Featured work
Royals inflatable hot dog beats the 35-second clock
Kauffman Stadium's crowd passed the Royals inflatable hot dog into its bun with three seconds left, earning a free QuikTrip hot dog on a 4-3 loss night.
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Latest work
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What a Prediction Market Trade Actually Costs
Fees peak when a contract sits at 50 cents — exactly where sports markets trade. What 100 contracts actually cost on each venue.
29 Jul 2026
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Every CFTC-Regulated Prediction Market in 2026
Thirteen venues hold CFTC registration. Which are actually trading, what each charges, and why Polymarket counts as two of them.
29 Jul 2026
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Online Casino vs Sportsbook: Which One Suits You?
A sportsbook charges about 4.55% on a standard two-way line and can be out-thought; a casino charges 0.5% to 8% per round and cannot. That difference decides which one you open first.
11 Apr 2026
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Prediction Markets vs Casino Games: Where the Money Goes
Casino edge is fixed and unbeatable. Market costs are different, sometimes higher, and you can actually do something about them.
6 Apr 2026
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Arbitrage Between Sportsbooks and Prediction Markets
Cross-platform arbs are real but thinner than the screen suggests. Here's the probability math, a fee-adjusted worked example, and the settlement traps that turn a locked profit into a loss.
28 Mar 2026
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What Are Prediction Markets? A Complete Beginner's Guide
Learn how prediction markets work, where to trade, and how they differ from traditional sports betting in this comprehensive beginner's guide.
20 Mar 2026