A crash game draws one number per round — the bust point — from a distribution calibrated to the published edge. The climbing multiplier is animation; the number was set before the round began (and at provably fair implementations, before the seed chain was committed). Understanding that single fact reorganises the whole game.
How the bust point is computed
Typical implementation: the round's hash converts to a number that maps onto a distribution where the probability the game reaches multiplier M is roughly (1 − edge) ÷ M.
| Target multiplier | Reach probability (3% edge example) |
|---|---|
| 1.5x | 64.7% |
| 2x | 48.5% |
| 5x | 19.4% |
| 10x | 9.7% |
| 100x | 0.97% |
If you want the math: if P(reach M) = 0.97/M, the expected value of cashing out at M is M × 0.97/M = 0.97 — a 3% edge at every target. That uniformity is the design: no cashout point is smarter than another. Many implementations add an instant-bust floor (e.g. 1 in 33 rounds bust at 1.00x) as part of reaching the same number.
What auto-cashout actually does
Sets your target before the round and executes it without you. It does not change expected value — the table above is flat — but it converts crash into a fixed-odds bet chosen deliberately, removes mid-round decisions (the place where discipline dies), and eliminates the latency risk of manual cashout. Use it always; choose the target by variance appetite, not by strategy claims.
Streaks at your target
At a 2x target you lose just over half of rounds. Per 100 rounds:
| Losing streak at 2x | Probability |
|---|---|
| 6 in a row | ~60% |
| 8 in a row | ~22% |
| 10 in a row | ~6% |
Stake so the routine streak cannot end the session: 1–2% units, exactly as in the blackjack bankroll framework. High targets invert the experience — long droughts, rare spikes — at the same expected cost.
Reading a crash game's fairness page
Three things to find: the published edge (1–4% across common implementations — the number varies by game and operator, so check per game), the seed-chain commitment (verifiable history anchor), and the verifier. The provably fair walkthrough covers the checking procedure; a game that hides any of the three has answered your question.